Many of the investment trends I talk about tend to play out over an extended period of time — for example, the long-term price gains in food and energy. But I see at least seven different crises that could rock your world over the next 12 months.

My intention is not to scare you. I simply want to raise your awareness today, and give you different ways you can profitably hedge your portfolio against these threats.

Let's run down the list ...

Crisis #1 — Oil Could Hit $157 a Barrel

I'm talking even if there isn't a new war or military escalation in the Middle East, terrorist attack on the Saudi oil fields, etc. Even if none of that happens, we could see $157 oil just in the normal course of business.
I've laid out the case in recent weeks for the long-term forces that could drive oil prices to nose-bleed levels: America using one-fourth of the world's crude, Chinese oil demand growing 13.6% year over year, a "bumpy plateau" of supply, and lack of new discoveries, just to name a few.

But even in the short-term, there are forces that could drive oil much higher. They include:

--> Increasing Demand. The latest EIA figures for last week show that U.S. gasoline demand climbed 0.57% year-over year.

A year ago, gasoline sold for an average $2.86 per gallon. Last week, the national average was $3.50. So not only are Americans not using LESS gasoline as the price goes up — we're actually using MORE.
We might like to think that as gasoline hits $4, and even $5, a gallon this summer, people will drive less which will cause a supply surplus and send prices back down. But I don't believe that's going to happen.


>> Geopolitical Squeeze. This week, the price of oil and gasoline is being squeezed by everything from a strike at a Scottish pipeline (which is shutting down a portion of British production) to rebel attacks and a strike that have forced Nigeria to shut down more than half of its oil output.
These will pass ... and then something new will come along. We'll probably see a long, hot summer where bad news from the oil fields keeps the heat on prices at the pump.

>> Stormy Weather? The past two hurricane seasons have passed without a serious storm hitting the U.S. This season is expected to have higher than average storm activity. And it would take just one bad storm in the wrong place to knock out The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) which supplies 13% of the nation's oil, about 1.2 million barrels a day, or the fleets of U.S. and Mexican rigs in the Gulf of Mexico.

Heck, Mexico's oil company, Pemex, just closed three oil export terminals in the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific because of stormy weather. What are they going to do when the real blow-me-down hits?
Crisis #2 — The End of Cheap Air Travel

The past couple of months have seen Aloha Airlines, ATA Airlines, Skybus and Frontier Airlines careen into bankruptcy. Northwest has merged with Delta. United, US Airways, Continental and American Airlines are looking for dance partners.

And it's not just in the U.S. Around the world, airlines are merging or folding as they try (mostly unsuccessfully) to deal with $120 per barrel oil.
One analyst calculated that if crude oil stays at $110 a barrel for the year, it would boost fuel expenses for the major U.S. airlines — even considering a reduction in capacity and in flying — by about $19 billion dollars.
That's a whopping 53% increase!

Eventually, we'll probably be left with about four big airlines. And the only way they'll be able to make money is by raising fares — way, way up.
Americans have gotten used to being able to fly from New York to Los Angeles and back for less than it would cost to drive. Eventually, when airlines stop merging/imploding, you can look forward to having less choice, it will be to be more crowded, there will probably be less service — and you're going to pay more for all of it.

Crisis #3 — A Worsening Trade War with Europe
And surprise, surpris

Hi Guys on Bebo,

I'm Martin Weiss.

I just returned from a quick trip to the Brazilian industrial state of São Paulo, including visits to the sprawling capital, two coastal cities, and Piracicaba — a modern, bustling town that's typical of the fast-growing interior (where we took this picture).

When I first arrived there, I had half expected to see, hear or read about some impact on Brazil's economy from the U.S. credit crunch.
But there's virtually none. In fact, Brazil is booming — and it's not alone. My team and I see parallel booms in Argentina, Mexico, Chile, Columbia, Peru and all over Latin America. Ditto for Asia, Oceania and Africa.

Would a credit crack-up in the U.S. impact the rest of the world? Of course. To think otherwise would be to ignore the linkages among global financial markets.

But my trip to Brazil has reinforced our view that three powerful global currents are likely to persist:

1. The rapid emergence of new, vibrant middle classes many times larger than anything previously witnessed on the planet ...

2. The rapid growth of global trade between Asia and other emerging markets, which, remarkably, is largely independent of the U.S., E.U. or Japan, and ...

3. The nonstop increase in worldwide demand for commodities — especially food and energy.

"The Rapid Emergence of Brazil's New Middle Class"

Brazilian economists view their population as split into five class categories:

Classes "A" and "B," at the top of the social ladder, have traditionally made up the only consumer market of significance.
In contrast, classes "D" and "E," at the bottom of the scale, are largely excluded from the consumer economy.

The big phenomenon in Brazil today: Class "C" or what I call Brazil's "New Middle Class." These are recent entrants into the ranks of consumers — the people who, like their counterparts in nearly every major emerging nation, are transforming the world economy virtually overnight.

Veja magazine, Brazil's leading news weekly, reports that in just the last two years, 20 million Brazilians have left poverty behind and joined this New Middle Class.

"Compared to the half billion new consumers that have emerged in China and India in the last decade," write the authors of the Veja article, "the Brazilian phenomenon may seem small. But it is still spectacular in its own context. It's as if two nations the size of Portugal have emerged out of poverty — an unprecedented historical event in such a short period of time."

They remind us that, regardless of when or where, the varied histories of the world's leading industrial nations have one unequivocal attribute in common: The rise of a large middle class.

That's what we saw in Europe when rigid social barriers gave way to the mobility created by capitalism. And that's what we saw again in Japan after World War II.

Now, it's arriving in Brazil and other emerging nations: Suddenly, Brazil's New Middle Class is the largest in the country with 86.2 million people — 46% of the total population, compared to just 34% in 2005. Meanwhile, the poorer classes, which made up 51% of the population in 2005, have now shrunk to just 39%.

Members of Brazil's New Middle Class buy four out of every 10 computers sold in the country. They've got four out of 10 of the nation's cell phone lines. They live in 70% of the homes financed by the giant government-run Caixa Economic Federal. And they are the recipients of 70% of newly issued credit cards.

They are creating a large social buffer between rich and poor, spurring new businesses, and creating new jobs for low-income Brazilians.

Take the Silveira family in the southern city of Porto Alegre, for example. Two years ago, they were barely surviving on a monthly income of a few hundred dollars. Today, thanks to new jobs held by 23-year-old Monique and her 22-year-old brother Fransces, their income has jumped enough to afford their first computer, DVD player, micr

The last few weeks have been the roller coaster ride from hell for commodities, an up-and-down whirlwind that has left many traders feeling turned inside-out.
But I think there are strong signs that a commodity correction may be coming to a close. If you're not long yet, you might want to consider putting some money to work.

After all, the inflationary forces and fundamentals that are driving commodity prices higher are still in place. Has the Fed stopped pumping money into the system? Have we stopped importing inflation from China? For that matter, have the Chinese given up on buying new air conditioners, cars, and eating more and better food? No, no and NO!
Today, I want to give you an update on natural resources. First, let's talk about the continued strength we're seeing across the board in the futures markets ...

1) Strength in gold despite bearish "fundamentals."Consumers' appetites for gold seem to drop as prices go above $900 an ounce, and there's talk of the U.S. dollar finding a bottom. And yet, gold ended last week rebounding from its recent sell-off and looks poised for another run at its highs. When commodities go higher in the face of forces that usually drive them lower, that's pretty bullish! Of course, it's also worth noting that the fundamental supply-and-demand issues pushing gold higher aren't going away anytime soon:

• Global gold production fell to a 10-year low of 2,444 metric tonnes in 2007, according to Gold Fields Mineral Service. This year, production will likely drop again. While China is producing more gold — up 12% — South Africa's output is falling off a cliff, down 8.1%. Gold miners are exploring frantically, but the mother lodes are getting harder to find. This should drive consolidation in the industry going forward as the big companies gobble up the smaller fish to replace their reserves.

• The huge rush of gold buying by the ETFs is helping drive the market. Demand from exchange-traded funds and other funds that hold physical metal was up 16% in 2007, after jumping 25% in 2006. Now, exchange-traded funds that hold physical gold — GLD and IAU in the U.S., GOLD in Australia, GLD in Johannesburg, GBS in France and Britain — hold more gold than many central banks. What's more, a new gold ETF in India is planned for this year.

•Petrodollars are pouring into gold! Gold demand in the Middle East rose 30% in 2007. In Dubai, gold sales climbed 23.8% to $2.6 billion. In Saudi Arabia, gold demand rose 15.2% to 120.2 metric tonnes while sales value rose 33.3% to $3.2 billion.

Speaking of petrodollars ...

2.) Like it or not, we live in a global, petroleum-based economy.
Oil inventories are building week after week, and yet crude prices are trending higher. Why? As the name implies, oil futures trade on the perception and anticipation of the future.

• Mexico is one of our major foreign oil suppliers. But the situation in Mexico's aging, under-financed oil fields is going from bad to worse. Production began to fall in 2005, and Mexico may have to import light crude for its refineries by 2011, according to Energy Minister Georgina Kassel. Without new production, daily oil exports may plummet to 289,000 barrels in 2016 from 1.67 million last year.

• Russia is one of the world's biggest oil exporters. But Russian oil output may fall this year for the first time in a decade. Output fell 0.7% in January and 0.9% in February, to 9.79 million barrels a day.

•Global demand for oil continues to rise. The International Energy Agency expects demand to rise 2% this year to 87.54 million barrels a day. That's over 1,000 barrels a second!

•Global demand for oil continues to rise. The International Energy Agency expects demand to rise 2% this year to 87.54 million barrels a day. That's over 1,000 barrels a second!


3) A worsening global agriculture crisis.
I've told you in recent columns how billions of people in China and India are changing their diets �